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ALL NEW POLLS RELEASED TODAY SHOW McCAIN EITHER AHEAD OR TIED

MONDAY,  SEPTEMBER 8,  2008

UPDATE AT 11:21 P.M. ET:  From The Politico:  Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin will speak at her son’s Army deployment ceremony on 9/11 and spend two days with ABC News crews later this week as part of a McCain campaign plan to increase Americans’ comfort with her as a leader.  Campaign and network officials had said on Sunday that her first television interview would be a sit-down with Charles Gibson of ABC’s “World News.”  But it turns out that she is spending much of Thursday and Friday with Gibson — at the ceremony in Fairbanks, Alaska, and at her home in Wasilla, Alaska.

KRISTOL

Posted at 7:24 p.m. ET

Bill Kristol, in today's New York Times, assesses the reaction to the McCain's selection of Sarah Palin, and also provides a very useful history lesson for those concerned about the experience factor.  First, on news coverage of Palin:

Will that coverage continue to be as belittling of Palin as much of it has been so far? Probably. It’s not just that many in the media don’t like her politics and don’t identify with her socially or culturally. They’re offended that McCain picked Palin without, so to speak, consulting them. The establishment media take pride in their role as gatekeeper to our political process and social discourse.

So the gatekeeper media’s reaction has been: Who is Sarah Palin to suddenly show up on the national stage? We didn’t vet her. And we don’t approve of her.

Having been in journalism, I can report that Kristol is dead on.  Many journalists are frustrated that they lack actual decision-making power.  So they go for the next best thing - influencing the decision makers.  When they're ignored, they pout.

How will the Obama side deal with Sarah Palin?

To the degree they have to address the Palin question, they’ll stick to the argument they made in their first reaction to the Palin announcement: “Today, John McCain put the former mayor of a town of 9,000 with zero foreign policy experience a heartbeat away from the presidency.”

According to Safire’s Political Dictionary, the “heartbeat away from the presidency” locution may date from 1952, when the Democratic nominee, Adlai Stevenson, attacked the Republican V.P. candidate, the 39-year old Richard Nixon, “who asks you to place him a heartbeat from the presidency.” A half-century before, William McKinley’s campaign manager, Mark Hanna, alarmed by the prospect of the 41-year-old Teddy Roosevelt as the V.P. nominee in 1900, is reported to have warned “that there is only one life between the Vice President and the Chief Magistracy of the nation.”

In neither case were voters moved by the “heartbeat away” concern. McKinley and Eisenhower both won easily.

Kristol presents the record:

Should voters be alarmed by a relatively young or inexperienced vice-presidential candidate? No. Since 1900, five vice presidents have succeeded to the presidency during their term in office: Teddy Roosevelt in 1901, Calvin Coolidge in 1923, Harry Truman in 1945, Lyndon Johnson in 1963, and Gerald Ford in 1974. Teddy Roosevelt took over at age 42, becoming our youngest president, and he’s generally thought to have proved up to the job. Truman was V.P. for less than three months and had been kept in the dark by Franklin Roosevelt about such matters as the atom bomb — and he’s generally thought to have risen to the occasion. Character, judgment and the ability to learn seem to matter more to success as president than the number of years one’s been in Washington.

There is, though, a uniqueness about Sarah Palin:

McCain didn’t just pick a politician who could appeal to Wal-Mart Moms. He picked a Wal-Mart Mom. Indeed, he picked someone who, in 1999, as Wasilla mayor, presided over a wedding of two Wal-Mart associates at the local Wal-Mart. “It was so sweet,” said Palin, according to The Anchorage Daily News. “It was so Wasilla.”

A Wasilla Wal-Mart Mom a heartbeat away? I suspect most voters will say, No problem. And some — perhaps a decisive number — will say, It’s about time.

But be careful of those gatekeepers, the disappointed journalists who weren't consulted, whose Georgetown-party advice was not taken.  In a close race, their coverage can make the difference. 

We'll be watching closely to see whether McCain retains his convention bounce over the next week or two, or whether the race slides back to where it was in August - close, but with Obama leading.  Right now, Obama is playing defense, thrown by the success of the GOP convention, and by the magic of Sarah.  Expect that playbook to change.  Chicago-based politicians don't play defense very long.

September 8, 2008.       Permalink          

BULLETIN AT 6:24 P.M. ET:  A new CBS News poll just released has McCain up two.  CBS News reports:

CBS) Republican presidential nominee John McCain leads Democratic rival Barack Obama 46 percent to 44 percent in the latest CBS News poll, which was taken in the three days following the completion of the parties' nominating conventions.

The poll marks the first time that McCain, whose two-point lead is within the poll's margin of error, has led Obama in CBS News general election polling.

Obama led McCain by three points in a CBS News/New York Times survey released on August 20th, just before the political conventions, and led by 8 points in CBS News polling just after the Democratic National Convention. A CBS News survey conducted last week found the two candidates tied.

More progress.  Much work to do.

BULLETIN AT 6:06 P.M. ET: A new ABC News/Washington Post poll of likely voters has McCain up two.  ABC's The Page reports some internals:

–McCain is winning white women 53 percent to 41 percent.
–Fifty-one percent trust Obama to “bring needed change” while 39 percent trust McCain to do the same.
–Fort-eight percent believe Obama better represents their values while 44 percent believe McCain does.
–McCain leads independents 50 percent to 43 percent.
–McCain leads married women 48 percent to 44 percent.
–McCain leads white Catholics 59 percent to 36 percent.

McCain/Palin still have work to do on the "change" and "values" issues, but the rest is moving right along.

UPDATE AT 4:14 P.M. ET:  A new PPP poll has Obama up by only one point in the traditionally Democratic state of Michigan.  It is hard to see how Obama can win the election if he can't carry Michigan, and he traditionally polls better than he delivers.  Key question:  This reflects the McCain/Palin convention bounce.  Will it last?  You can be sure the McCain side will pour it on in Michigan.

POLLS

Posted at 2:04 p.m. ET

Both trackers for the day have now been published.  As noted below, Rasmussen gives McCain a one-point lead among likely voters.  (Please read his explanation in our  9:38 a.m. bulletin.)

The Gallup tracker now gives McCain a five-point lead among registered voters.   That contrasts with Obama's eight-point lead six days ago.  That's a decline for Obama of 13 points.

There are two new standard polls up.  CNN has the race tied, as does Hotline.

No poll posted today has Obama with a lead.

We stress again that a poll is a snapshot in time.  The results today reflect the McCain convention bounce and his selection of Sarah Palin.  It remains to be seen whether that bounce will be maintained, grow, or erode.

But it's a good feeling to be making progress.

September 8, 2008.      Permalink          

BULLETIN AT 9:38 A.M. ET:  The first tracker of the day is out.  All the polling was taken after the Republican convention.  Rasmussen reports that McCain has a one-point lead, 48-47, among likely voters.  This may not seem encouraging at first, considering Gallup's report yesterday of a 10-point lead among LVs.  However, Rasmussen explains his methodology this way:

For a variety of reasons, the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll is less volatile than some other polls and always shows a somewhat smaller convention bounce than reported by others. This is primarily because we weight our results by party identification (see methodology). Looking at the data before adjusting for partisan identification, the Republican convention appears to have created a larger surge in party identification than the Democratic convention the week before. If this lasts, it could have a significant impact on Election 2008.

We await the Gallup tracker this afternoon.

UPDATE AT 8:41 A.M. ET:  It was certainly expected, but the New York Post, a mainstay of Rupert Murdoch's News Corporation, has formally endorsed McCain/Palin.  You can read the endorsement here.

AS OF NOW

Posted at 7:54 a.m. ET

That's an important phrase in following politics - "as of now."  For those of us of a certain persuasion, the last day has been exhilarating.  The standard Gallup Poll has McCain/Palin up ten points among likely voters. 

But please remember that Obama was up eight only six days ago in the Gallup tracker (taken among registered voters).

And think back two weeks, B.P. - before Palin.  It was an entirely different race.  Is it really possible that McCain announced her selection only 10 days ago?

A week is three lifetimes in politics.  We are not, as some commentators say, entering the homestretch of this campaign.  That occurs in October.  We are just beginning the main campaign itself.  There are debates ahead, with their hazards, and their sometimes biased moderators.  There are interviews.  There are potential embarrassing moments, or revelations.  There are international events, including a possible terror attack, that could change everything.  There is the chance that a candidate could fall ill.

So everything we say is "as of now."  We can bask in the success of the last week, but there is hard work ahead, and media misbehavior to battle.

A word about Sarah Palin:  I've been following politics since...well, for a long time.  It was different then, listening to Lincoln and Douglas.  I was the only one in the crowd with a digital camera.

But in all my years, Sarah Palin is the most phenomenal political personality I've seen.  She's being compared to Ronald Reagan, but I think the comparison is wrong.  Reagan was a magnificent speaker, but in a different, more regal way.  The better comparison, I think, is to Franklin D. Roosevelt.  Like Roosevelt, Palin has a way of reaching people, of speaking directly to us, as Roosevelt did in his fireside chats.  Bill Clinton may feel our pain, but Palin has experienced our pain.

There is a famous story about the day Roosevelt died.  A reporter noticed a soldier standing at the White House gate, and crying.  The reporter asked, "Did you know him?"  The soldier replied, "No, but he knew me."  That is the feeling people get with Sarah Palin.  She connects.  She understands.  She is incredibly articulate, one of the clearest, most understandable speakers I've ever heard.  And she has a wonderful, genuine voice.  Many people who speak publicly try to eliminate any regional accent.  She has not done so.  She is from somewhere.  She has roots, a home, a place.  Somewhere real.

September 8, 2008.      Permalink           

UPDATE AT 7:16 A.M. ET:  Last night we reported, via Drudge, that The New York Times was preparing a story on Sarah Palin's new baby.  We feared the worst.  But the story is now up, and it's a reasonable reporting job.  Nothing inflammatory.  Nothing to see here, nothing to see.  There are a few lines that seem to pose questions about Governor Palin's judgment, but they are well within professional bounds.

PERSONNEL NOTES

Posted at 6:58 a.m. ET

Some stories take on a delight of their own.

Apparently, the ruling classes at NBC have finally realized that running a news outlet that raises mental-health questions is not a good idea.  It's especially not a good idea when the outlet is frantically leftist, and it suddenly appears that the left-wing guy may not become president.

There are, therefore, personnel changes at MSNBC.  The New York Times tells the story:

MSNBC tried a bold experiment this year by putting two politically incendiary hosts, Keith Olbermann and Chris Matthews, in the anchor chair to lead the cable news channel’s coverage of the election.

That experiment appears to be over.

After months of accusations of political bias and simmering animosity between MSNBC and its parent network NBC, the channel decided over the weekend that the NBC News correspondent and MSNBC host David Gregory would anchor news coverage of the coming debates and election night. Mr. Olbermann and Mr. Matthews will remain as analysts during the coverage.

The change — which comes in the home stretch of the long election cycle — is a direct result of tensions associated with the channel’s perceived shift to the political left.

This is the correct move.  Executing it will have to be done carefully so it isn't just cosmetic. 

Executives at the channel’s parent company, NBC Universal, had high hopes for MSNBC’s coverage of the political conventions. Instead, the coverage frequently descended into on-air squabbles between the anchors, embarrassing some workers at NBC’s news division, and quite possibly alienating viewers. Although MSNBC nearly doubled its total audience compared with the 2004 conventions, its competitive position did not improve, as it remained in last place among the broadcast and cable news networks. In prime time, the channel averaged 2.2 million viewers during the Democratic convention and 1.7 million viewers during the Republican convention.

The success of the Fox News Channel in the past decade along with the growth of political blogs have convinced many media companies that provocative commentary attracts viewers and lures Web browsers more than straight news delivered dispassionately.

I was taught a wonderful notion at Columbia's Graduate School of Journalism:  "Never underestimate the viewer's intelligence, never overestimate the viewer's knowledge."  MSNBC consistently underestimates the intelligence of viewers.   It became, in recent months particularly, a childlike operation.

In interviews, 10 current and former staff members said that long-simmering tensions between MSNBC and NBC reached a boiling point during the conventions. “MSNBC is behaving like a heroin addict,” one senior staff member observed. “They’re living from fix to fix and swearing they’ll go into rehab the next week.”

That is correct.

Mr. Griffin, MSNBC’s president, denies that it has an ideology. “I think ideology means we think one way, and we don’t,” he said. Rather than label MSNBC’s prime time as left-leaning, he says it has passion and point of view.

That is a ridiculous statement, and thorough disingenuous.  "Passion and point of view"?  What point of view would that be?

Tom Brokaw and Brian Williams, the past and present anchors of “NBC Nightly News,” have told friends and colleagues that they are finding it tougher and tougher to defend the cable arm of the news division, even while they anchored daytime hours of convention coverage on MSNBC and contributed commentary each evening.

I guess they didn't like "passion and point of view."

Just last year, Mr. Olbermann signed a four-year, $4-million-a-year contract with MSNBC. NBC is close to supplementing that contract with Mr. Olbermann, extending his deal through 2013 — and ensuring that he will be on MSNBC through the next election.

Most unfortunate.

Also unfortunate is that the people who run MSNBC don't understand why Fox is so successful.  It does things well, that's why.  Its news broadcasts are straightforward.  It's commentary shows are clearly commentary.  Although considered "conservative" it gives liberals a fair shot.  Its panels during the convention were the best, and kept disciplined.

There are reasons for success.

September 8, 2008.      Permalink          

USA TODAY/GALLUP:  McCAIN UP TEN POINTS AMONG LIKELY VOTERS!

SUNDAY,  SEPTEMBER 7,  2008

BULLETIN AT 10:15 P.M. ET:  Reader Jon Dorbecker alerts us to the new USA Today/Gallup poll just published, and reported here.  It shows McCain up four among registered voters, consistent with the daily Gallup tracker, which has McCain up three.  But among likely voters McCain is up ten, 54-44:

In the new poll, taken Friday through Sunday, McCain leads Obama by 54%-44% among those seen as most likely to vote. The survey of 1,022 adults, including 959 registered voters, has a margin of error of +/— 3 points for both samples.

We have no way of knowing whether this will last.  For now, it's very good news. 

UPDATE AT 8:30 P.M. ET:  Drudge is reporting that The New York Times is preparing a "detailed story" about Sarah Palin's baby.  I have no idea what this is about.  Is The Times about to "expose" something damaging?  Or, will it do a straightforward and responsible reporting piece, perhaps in an attempt to regain some lost prestige?  I am only speculating here.  The news media has been playing a dangerous game in the past week, and public opinion, according to Rasmussen, has not been favorable.  We'll report details as soon as they become available.

UPDATE AT 6:43 P.M. ET:   From Yahoo News:  Under pressure for being shielded for questioning, Sarah Palin has a agreed to sit down with Charles Gibson of ABC’s “World News Tonight,” according to an ABC News official.  No other interviews are scheduled. It will be the first TV interview for Palin since she was named 10 days ago as running mate to John McCain.

QUESTION:  How many months did Barack Obama go with hardly a question permitted from reporters?  Did you hear many complaints from the media? 

UPDATE AT 4:17 P.M. ET:  Ed Lasky of American Thinker alerts me to some devastating background,via Little Green Footballs, regarding Barack Obama's interview on ABC this morning.  (See below, "Obama - The Interview.")  Other readers, especially Andy B of New York City, have also supplied information.  Obama claimed that he had to register for Selective Service when he graduated from high school in 1979.  But the Selective Service mandatory registration program was not reinstated until 1980.  Obama also claimed that he considered enlisting in the military after high school, but neither of his two autobiographical books mentions anything of the kind.  McCain guys, get going on this. 

TRACKERS

Posted at Posted at 1:24 p.m. ET

Both trackers have now been posted, and the results are dramatic.

As reported below, Rasmussen has the race tied.

But Gallup now has McCain three points ahead, 48-45, his best showing in almost four months.

The polling for both polling organizations was taken entirely in the three days following Sarah Palin's acceptance speech, and in the two days following John McCain's.  Tomorrow's result will reflect polling done entirely after the Republican convention.

The question:  Can McCain keep this lead, and build on it, or will this bounce fade, as Obama's did following his convention?  The fade for Obama came as a result of McCain's shot-in-the-arm convention.  Obama has to counter McCain with something, and he's recently seemed directionless. 

Another question:  Will some in the media now go to town on McCain/Palin, and try to change the polls?  Is this a difficult question?  The effect of press coverage may be the great subtext of this campaign.

This is the most exciting race since Reagan defeated Carter in 1980, and it keeps getting better.

September 7, 2008.      Permalink          

OBAMA - THE INTERVIEW

Posted at 1:12 p.m. ET

Reader Peter Madsen writes this:  "A college professor who hasn't been off campus much: Obama sans teleprompter on the Stephanopoulos show.  When I was in Toastmasters we always had an ah-counter. You'd need two of them to keep up with this bird."

Mr. Madsen makes a valid point.  The Obama in interviews is not the Obama with a prepared speech, addressing the multitudes.  He has difficulty answering questions.  He stumbles.  He often seems at a loss for facts.  You get the impression of a man constantly conniving, trying to express, not his own opinion, but the politically useful opinion.  I've also had the feeling that he doesn't prepare very well. 

The Politico reports on Obama's interview with George Stephanopoulos on "This Week."  Obama does not shine.

Barack Obama says his answer about abortion at the Saddleback Church forum was “probably” too flip.

During separate televised interviews last month, Pastor Rick Warren asked the two presidential candidates when a baby gets human rights. Obama replied that the question is “above my pay grade,” while John McCain won love from the right by saying quickly, “At the moment of conception.”

Now, Obama tells ABC’s George Stephanopoulos in an interview taped for “This Week”: “What I intended to say is that, as a Christian, I have a lot of humility about understanding when does the soul enter into … It's a pretty tough question. And so, all I meant to communicate was that I don't presume to be able to answer these kinds of theological questions.”

So why hadn't he communicated those things?  He's dealt with the abortion issue throughout his political career. 

Then there's this, which leans to the bizarre:

Obama disclosed that he had once considered serving in the military.

“You know, I actually did,” Obama said. “I had to sign up for Selective Service when I graduated from high school. And I was growing up in Hawaii. And I have friends whose parents were in the military. There are a lot of Army, military bases there.

“And I actually always thought of the military as an ennobling and, you know, honorable option. But keep in mind that I graduated in 1979. The Vietnam War had come to an end. We weren't engaged in an active military conflict at that point. And so, it's not an option that I ever decided to pursue.”

Do you understand the logic of what he said?  He considered joining the military because it was "an ennobling and, you know, honorable option."  But there was no war on, so that's why he didn't?  It isn't ennobling or honorable in peacetime?

What is Obama saying?  I recall that Hillary Clinton once "disclosed" that she'd tried to join the Marines.  The story fell flat.  I don't think anyone took her seriously.  Now Obama comes out with this weird pronouncement on joining the military. 

Strange.  Very strange.

September 7, 2008.      Permalink          

BULLETIN AT 9:24 A.M. ET:  The first tracker of the day is out.  Rasmussen reports the presidential race is tied, at 48 percent each for McCain and Obama.  Rasmussen had Obama up three yesterday.  All the polling was done in the three days following Sarah Palin's speech.  Two thirds was done following McCain's speech.  Tomorrow's result will be the first to report polling done entirely after the Republican convention.

UPDATE AT 7:29 A.M. ET:  Zogby International has released an interactive poll showing McCain/Palin up approximately four points over Obama/Biden.  Some caveats:  I can't vouch for the methodology of this poll, although Zogby claims it's been tested.  Also, Zogby is the only pollster, as of this hour, to show McCain ahead.  He also had McCain ahead last week.  So examine carefully, but with a smile.

We await the release of today's first tracker, by Rasmussen, at about 9:30 a.m. or a bit after.

PANIC BUTTON?

Posted at 8:34 a.m. ET

There are some signs that Barack Obama may realize he has a bit of a problem.  The Politico reports:

TERRE HAUTE, Ind.—His shirtsleeves are rolled up higher, his tone is a bit more biting. Stirring up supporters at a fairgrounds show barn here with a sharp critique of John McCain, Barack Obama looks and sounds like a candidate who realizes time is running out.

Haven't seen any observation like that so far in this campaign.  Obama has been looking at numbers.

With an expiration date in sight on a presidential campaign that once seemed interminable, Obama enters the final 58 days with the polls tight, his opponents appropriating his mantra of change, and the political deck reshuffled with a new wild card in the first female Republican vice presidential nominee, Sarah Palin.

I wonder if he's thinking, "I should've picked Hillary."  If he had, his current problems might have been avoided.  He left an opening for McCain to choose a woman, and McCain chose.

Obama arrived in this battleground state Saturday with a renewed urgency and a modified stump speech, delivering his most unforgiving assessment of his challengers since the Democratic National Convention, when the Illinois senator began lambasting McCain as someone who “doesn’t get it.”

And the more he does this, the more he sounds like a conventional politician.  He risks losing the enthusiasm of his supporters, many of them young, who saw him as something different.  He isn't different.

Honing an “us-versus-them” battle cry, Obama is positioning himself as the champion of the working class. Venturing into towns and counties in the past week that Hillary Rodham Clinton carried by 2-to-1 margins in the Democratic primary, Obama could sound strikingly similar to his one-time rival.

“They haven’t spent any time talking about problems that ordinary Americans are going through every single day,” Obama said last week in York, Pa., echoing a theme repeated throughout Ohio, Pennsylvania, Indiana and Michigan. “Not a word about how we are going to make college more affordable, how we are going to create more jobs here in the United States. Not a word about how to increase people’s incomes.

Apparently, he hasn't been listening to Sarah.  Sarah Palin exudes a genuineness on bread-and-butter issues that Obama can't hope to match.  She's been there, struggled to make ends meet, and never pulled in the fortunes that the Obamas made.  Obama is late on this one.

On Saturday, standing on a show barn floor layered with hay, Obama feigned disbelief as he railed against McCain for telling Republican convention delegates last week that “change is coming” to Washington.

“Now think about this coming from the party that’s been in charge for 8 years, they’ve been running the show,” Obama said. “John McCain brags, ‘90% of the time I have voted with George Bush. He and I, we were right there’ and suddenly he’s the change agent. Hah!

“What are these guys talking about?” Obama asked near the end of his riff. “Do you think we haven’t been paying attention over the past 8 years?”

The trouble is, McCain and Palin have now successfully carved out an image of themselves as renegades, and both have records to prove it.  Where's Obama's actual record?  He's never taken on any entrenched interest.  The McCain ads will hammer that home.

You get the sense that the McCain team has outmaneuvered the Obama group, and that it's starting to show.  Just look at the two conventions.  The Democratic convention was a coronation.  The Republican convention was scrappy and alive.  The Dems connected with the political establishment and the self-appointed "observers."  The Republicans connected with Sarah Palin's people.  Impact made.

September 7, 2008.      Permalink          

"What you see is news.  What you know is background.  What you feel is opinion."
    - Lester Markel, late Sunday editor
      of The New York Times.

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